AUD/USD Outlook (Week of March 5th)

by Himanshu Jain
(Tokyo)

AUDUSD tried to break above the range by moving to 1.0856 but fell again in the range it has been trading since February 8th.

The fall on Friday did found support slightly above the 22-day EMA and did not break it. This level is also the Kijun line support of daily Ichimoku cloud.

Overall we need a break of this long sideways move to have a directional move on either side but our focus stays for an upward break. This will remain true as long as AUDUSD does not break below 1.0597 which was the recent low on February 22nd. Such a break will also represent a decisive break below 55-day EMA. Even though such a move will only be 38.2% retracement of the upward move during January 8th to February 29th but may cause further consolidation towards 1.0490 for the pair.

As mentioned we expect further upward gains, with a break of the recent 1.0856 and then some resistance near 1.0900, we would expect AUD/USD to move that towards 1.1000 resistance and with a break over 1.1000, further towards 1.1079 high.

You may like to check daily technical analysis of AUD/USD and also the longer-term forecast for AUD/USD pair.

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