Technical Analysis GBPUSD 3 November 2014

by IFC Markets

Manufacturing PMI, UK

Today at 10:30 (CET) we expect the release of the monthly UK Manufacturing PMI. The diffusional index is formed as a result of a monthly survey of 600 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, which give their opinion regarding employment, prices, suppliers and inventory facilities. If the index falls below 50 due to the reduced activity, that indicates the economic downturn, especially if the trend is maintained for several months. This is the leading indicator as purchasing managers get a quick access to the company’s statistics. This is exactly the reason players have a strong reaction to the PMI index release. Today we can expect a new volatility momentum of the British pound.

Here we consider the GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price formed a graphic pattern called “double top”, which reflects the bearish market sentiment. ParabolicSAR reversed in the direction of the red zone after the breakout of the closest fractal low. At the moment, its historical values are moving along the H4 trend line. The DonchianChannel(13) confirmation will be received after the support level crossing at 1.58607. This mark can be used for placing a pending sell order. At this point, be sure to pay attention to the RSI-Bars oscillator reaction: now it is still indicating a bullish divergence.

It will be possible to talk about a stable trend continuation after the breakout of the oscillator support at 34.5540%. That will point out the divergence was being false. The graphic pattern “double bottom” can be used for placing Stop Loss at 1.61908. This level is also strengthened by Parabolic historical values and the upper side of DonchianChannel.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal peak. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.58607
Stop loss above 1.61908

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