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Technical Analysis GBPUSD 30 September 2014

Pound awaiting for Current Account

Today at 14:30 CET we expect the release of the UK Current Account. This indicator includes the difference between imports and exports of goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers. The first two categories are included in the Balance of Trade; so therefore, the main suspense is the publication of the balance of net financial flows. Certainly, this event can have a significant impact on the British currency behavior.

Here we consider the GBP/USD behavior on the H4 chart. Currently, the price broke the H4 trend line. However, we suggest the possible return to the downtrend corridor as the daily trend is influenced by bears. Donchian Channel confirms that investors are being pessimistic about the British currency. The key support breach at 1.62092 will lead to Parabolic SAR reversal in the direction towards the red zone, and we will get the necessary bearish confirmation. At this moment it is necessary to get an additional signal on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator: the level at 27.4230%. For opening a conservative position we suggest limiting the risks by the last fractal resistance at 1.63433. This level is strengthened by Parabolic SAR historical values and the upper boundary of Donchian Channel.

After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal peak. Updating is enough to be done every day. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.62092
Stop loss above 1.63433

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

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